COVID-19: Adding new challenges for college admission officers

The Coronavirus Pandemic has totally upended Higher Education as a whole and literally shut down every campus in the United States. Now that campuses have been emptied and classes are virtual, admissions offices are in panic mode trying to figure out the immediate and long-term impacts on enrollment and recruitment.

Looking forward, in an effort to understand what the recruitment landscape will look like in the future, we conducted a survey of Admissions Officers around the country.  The goal was to get their thoughts on what will be the impact on colleges in a post-Coronavirus world. 

Key Findings

• 87% of surveyed Admissions Administrators are now moving forecasts from a net increase to a prediction of a decline in their freshman class enrollment

• 93% of surveyed Admissions Administrators now expect to see a drop in their international student enrollment

• 84% of our respondents expected a 4-10% additional increase to those needing financial aid

• 25% of respondents planned on dropping SAT/ACT requirements as a result of the Pandemic

 Let’s get into the data:

They’re worried: Admissions Officers forecast a noticeable decrease in enrollment

2020 began on a positive note—55% of surveyed colleges were looking forward to an increase number of enrollments. As we wade through COVID-19, they’ve drastically changed their tune for Fall 2020.

An astounding 87% of those surveyed now expect a decrease in enrollment. Looking closer, 42% expect to see a decline of 4-9% while 18% are expecting a decrease of more than 10%. The findings are consistent with what our survey of college students pointed out: 22% of students are rethinking their plans; some dropping the idea of college completely.

Here’s what the administrators noted:

“...this is on top of the existing struggles…I mean, there were concerns within the higher ed profession, certainly before Coronavirus. Changing population, a smaller population, questions about the value of a degree, alternative free tuition programs. There were a lot of problems that we were certainly aware of before this-Coronavirus has simply exacerbated or compounded all of that.” - Survey respondent

Staying home: Enrollment of international students will be immensely impacted

International enrollment is key to higher education. Not only do the students bring in tuition money, but they also bring their culture, ideas, and passion for learning to institutions across the country for moth secondary and post-graduate study.

Our survey found that because of COVID-19, the US higher education system will shrink for the next two years. Due to closed borders and strict travel restrictions, 93% of Admissions Administrators now expect to see a significant drop in international student enrollment. Of the 93%, 24% expect this drop to be between 4-9% and almost half of the total respondents expect the decline to be greater than 10%.

“In terms of students and the incoming class coming to campus.… International students are not going to make it because they still have to deal with visa issues…with embassies that are shut…all sorts of obstacles” -Jonathan Lindsay, -VP of Enrollment, Goucher College

The point of no return: Retention rates are at risk

We know that college recruitment is a balancing act between meeting the enrollment goals and enrolling the best-fit students who will thrive and graduate. Many of the colleges we surveyed were on that path to success prior to the pandemic, with 70% saying that they had a freshman class retention rate of over 70%.

However, like with most data, COVID-19 presented extreme changes in higher education. Now, 74% of our respondents are predicting a decline of retention rates. Specifically, 27% are predicting a 4-9% additional drop in students returning to campus next year, whereas 17% see that number being over 10%.

“Many of our admitted students haven’t visited campus so the challenge will be --- can a virtual option replace an on-campus experience?” -Survey Response

Funding the future: Calculating the financial impact of the pandemic

It’s inevitable. The higher education industry will be hit hard with additional financial burden caused by the pandemic. With financial aid being a key component of a college’s budget and planning cycle, they will have to find more and more ways to continue to fund their institutions and attendees.

Of our respondents, 81% have greater than a 60% ratio of their current student population on some level of financial aid. With multiple governors calling for total non-essential shutdowns of their states, many families are out of work. Plus, with the stock market in a free-fall, it’s not surprising that 49% of our respondents are now expecting an additional 4-10% students who will require financial aid in order to be able to attend college. With that, an additional 33% see that demand for financial aid going up by 10% or more.

Students and colleges are thinking the same. In our survey of 1,100 college students, we found that 69% of students expect a change in their financial situation as it relates to higher education. Therefore, they are expected to seek more scholarships and financial aid.

Big money: Spending on recruitment expected to change

Keeping with the financial change theme, some administrators also expressed that they’ll have to do more with less funding.

Forty-three percent see their budgets decreasing somewhere between 3% and more than 5%.  However, surprisingly 21% see additional budget support coming their way to address their enrollment challenges.

How can Admission Officers work smarter to get the most out of their changing budget? We look forward to seeing how creative Admission Offices get!

“The days of spending big money on a big list from the test agencies and throwing it up against the wall to see what sticks are over...Admissions Offices need to work smarter and be creative on how they find and recruit new students.” -Survey Response

Punch in the proverbial gut: Moving away from standardized testing

Can standardized testing survive the pandemic? With The College Board postponing testing into June (for now) and testing that was once closely proctored moving online, COVID-19 could be the downfall of the heavily scrutinized 94-year-old methodology.

Interestingly, 25% of respondents planned on dropping SAT/ACT requirements as a result of the pandemic, on top of the 44% who already have made them optional. Meaning, about 69% surveyed colleges going test optional. We are already seeing indications of this as more and more colleges are already announcing the test optional admissions for 2020 and 2021 enrollment cycle.

“Boston University announced that it will go test optional for those applying in the fall of 2021 or the spring of 2022, but only those two semesters. BU cited the difficulty students have in taking the SAT or ACT.”- Scott Jaschik, Inside Higher Ed.

Summary

It's been said “Welcome to the New Normal!” with regards to life in the Post-Pandemic world. We asked Jonathan Lindsay, Vice President of Enrollment at Goucher College, where do you see the “New Normal” for colleges and universities? 

“...our solution to that, short term at this point, has just been to create some ranges of impact and to quantify those in terms of lost revenue, not yet understanding where within this range we may fall…. I don't know that as an industry yet, we've got any consensus around what the impact might be. Again, I would say though, that I'm worrying about what rainy day funds institutions have to get us from point A to point B and I think that's going to be the biggest struggle. It's not only what is the impact going to be, but once we understand that, do institutions have the ability to survive that and hang around, are they going to be able to hang around until things return to some semblance of normalcy? -Jonathan Lindsay, -VP of Enrollment, Goucher College

(See the full video interview with Jonathan Lindsay here )

Survey Information:

The Cirkled In 2020 Post COVID: Impact on College Admissions Survey was sent to over 300 Top Admissions Officers across the country, with 33 responses. Here’s the breakdown of colleges categories as reported by the Administrators themselves:

To read and download the full report, visit the Cirkled In page. We will update this report as more survey responses keep coming.

How do you think COVID-19 will impact the future of college admissions? Chime in on Twitter or Facebook!